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The real estate market for Metro Atlanta has changed dramatically in 2012. We predicted a few years ago that the pace of foreclosures would slow and new homes would not be able to restart fast enough. The result would be an undersupply of desirable properties for sale – and we were right! The chart above shows the change in “for sale” inventory for the main counties of Metro Atlanta. Real estate markets are driven by supply and demand plus a few outside factors like mortgage rates and the mix of unusual properties like short sales & foreclosures. It is clear that supply is considerably low relative to previous periods. Right now there is a 4.4 month supply of inventory at the current rate of closed sales – which is below the 6 months that would be considered normal.
But what about the trends for demand? Trendgraphix reports that year-to-date closings for Metro Atlanta are up 12% from the same period last year. If you annualize those numbers, we expect to see around 70,000 to 75,000 homes purchased this year. At the peak of 2006, there were 125,000 home sold in Metro Atlanta. At the bottom, we saw only 60,000 homes sold. The 125,000 number was artificially fueled by easy mortgages and the new homes bubble that burst. We believe that a normal market for our area should see around 80,000 to 85,000 homes sold. We are slowly but surely working our way back to normal levels.
The increased demand and lower supply are reflecting in a faster pace of sales. The “Average Days On Market” has dropped an average of 50 days from the run-rate at the beginning of the year. That represents a 40% improvement in the number of days to sell a property.
So what about those outside factors like mortgage rates and the pace of short sales and foreclosures? Mortgage rates remain at all-time lows. On September 13th, the Fed announced a new program to purchase $40 billion dollars per month of mortgage-backed securities. The effect will certainly keep mortgage rates artificially low in the short term. This is different from the decision last year to fix interest rates at effectively zero for banks to borrow money. The mortgage market is impacted by a range of factors other than the interest rate. So this new program of purchasing mortgage securities will keep mortgage rates artificially low for an extended period. Note that we used the phrase “artificially low” since we do not expect these conditions to last and we will have to pay substantially higher rates at some point in the future.
The pace of foreclosures & short sales has slowed relative to last year. In 2011, we saw an average of 10,000 to 12,000 pre-foreclosures per month. In 2012, this has slowed to the 4,000 to 6,000 range. Pre-foreclosures are “notices of default” from the bank to the property owner and are a good early stage indicator for short sale or foreclosure trends. The pace of banks actually foreclosing has also slowed and the sales of the current bank-owned properties are higher than the incoming rate of foreclosure by 34% (see chart below). This means that we are absorbing the current inventory.
But what about the shadow inventory? Shadow inventory is the foreclosed inventory being held by the banks but not currently listed for sale. Some estimate that these are significant numbers and will be released into the market early next year. We do not expect to see a flood of new inventory hitting the streets. Banks are not likely to flood the market and harm their own property values. We see them pursuing bulk purchases to large investors. We also see them being more aggressive in streamlining short sales so they can more efficiently move properties.
Investors are very active in Metro Atlanta. There are some very large and well-funded groups plus many smaller investors or individuals. There is demand for rentals in every price point. But the sweet spot appears to be properties in the $75,000 to $200,000 range that are able to be purchased at a good price and placed into rentals. The rental market is very strong in Metro Atlanta. There are thousands of good people that have been through a short sale or foreclosure that do not have the credit to qualify for a purchase loan. There are also thousands of younger people who are choosing to rent until they are more comfortable with their employment and financial situations. Some move-up buyers are choosing to buy now and take advantage of great prices and historically low mortgage rates. They are renting their current homes and plan to put them on the market for sale in the future when values are higher. Some baby boomers are doing the same thing as they migrate to more energy efficient homes that are better suited for their changing lifestyle.
If you are interested in renting your property, we have a full service property management solution that can help you. This is a more complex area than most realize and we have the infrastructure and resources to allow you to relax and not worry about your rental property. Contact us to learn more.
Trends For Home Values
Home values are stabilizing and even rising in some areas. This is due to the patterns of supply and demand. But there are still a few wildcards to keep watching. Many sales are still “short sales” which means that the lender(s) are willing to accept a price that is less than the outstanding mortgage amount. Short sales are typically sold below the market rate. These types of sales are holding values lower than they might in a more normal market.
When you look at Metro Atlanta as a whole, we do see values improving. See the chart below for the positive trend in “$ per square feet”. This shows a 23% improvement in 2012. There is a little more to this story since the mix of what is selling has changed substantially as well. Last year, almost 50% of the sold properties were under $100,000. That should normally be 10-15% of the market. In 2012, we are seeing a more normal mix of price points which will make the “$ per square feet” higher. If you factor out the changing mix, we still see a positive trend.
The Case-Shiller Index is another good indicator of home values for our area. Case-Shiller tracks repeat sales or the price a property was sold for compared to the price that was paid when they bought. This index is widely considered to be more reliable than looking at average sales prices or median prices. The Case-Shiller Index is reported every month at 9am on the last Tuesday of the month. The reports provide insight on 20 major markets around the nation including Atlanta. You will see articles in the paper and lots of coverage on the television news and the internet. Each month, our company provides a detailed article on the latest Case-Shiller Index which can be found on our blog site ATLscoop.com.
The latest Case-Shiller Index reported on Tuesday, September 25th. So, what did these results show for Metro Atlanta?
The Case-Shiller Index was 94.15 which is 2.62% higher than the previous month. This continues to show a positive trend for the past 4 months. But our home values are still 31% down from the peak index of July 2007.
The housing bubble artificially inflated our home values but we believe they have over-corrected to the downside. As conditions normalize over time, so will our home values. The pace of recovery will vary depending upon your local market conditions. We have access to proprietary market reports and trends that are not available to the public. If you would like to know the trends in your specific area or the value of your property, please contact us.
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